Predicting the Most Unpredictable Oscars Ever
When I was fat kid growing up in Yonkers, NY, movies were my great escape. It provided me with a safe haven where I was never judged and always entertained — no matter how horrid the movie was. I remember seeing the John Larroquette/Kirstie Alley movie Madhouse in the theaters for goodness sake! Anyway, as an adult, little has changed. Films transport me as much as meditation, reading a book, or walking in nature does. But, yeah — the pandemic has messed everything up. This is the longest I’ve ever gone without seeing a movie in a theater. I miss the communal experience. I miss the lights dimming. I miss trailers. I miss it all. But, and it’s a big but, thanks to streaming, I have — crap, we all have — been able to find a safe haven during the darkest of times. This year’s films have been works of wonder. Do I wish they could provide a bit more, um, happiness? Sure. So many of the best films of 2020 were, to be honest, a downer. But, they still snapped me out of pandemic blues with riveting performances, jaw-dropping cinematography, a soaring score, and everything in between.
This Monday marks the announcement of this year’s Oscar nominees. I look forward to this morning every year — even this year. I remember bringing a Watchman — Google it! — to school with me so I wouldn’t miss it. It’s a magical day for any film lover. And yeah, it’s also a frustrating day because no doubt they’ll be huge head scratching snubs. But, here we are. It’s a tradition that’s continuing. It’s normalcy. Thank goodness for that. Still, predicting this year’s nominees is the most difficult thing ever. The voting process just started last week — following the whacked Golden Globes and two days before the more spot-on Critic’s Choice Awards. In most years, these award shows would mean little to voters but being that there haven’t been any industry screenings and voters are relying on themselves mostly (well, I’m sure they’re texting and some knuckleheads are still getting together) to vote for their favorites. Unlike previous years where everyone took a proverbial dump on Netflix and services like it that tore into the cinematic experience, this was the only way people could watch this year. So, what’s this all mean? Who knows but I’d guess we can look for smaller films to shine and for a few more “huh?” picks this Monday morning. Here’s my breakdown on every category except the “shorts.” Since I haven’t seen all of them, it’d feel weird to weigh in. Everything feels weird…
BEST PICTURE
Voters can pick up to ten nominees here, and I think each slot will be utilized. Here are my picks in order of confidence I have. So, for example, my first nine would be the nine if they chose nine. Make sense? It’s a pandemic. Who cares if you don’t. One dude’s Oscar picks don’t matter much.
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Sound of Metal
The Father
One Night in Miami
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World
My Take: News of the World is a stretch but it just feels like a prototype “Oscar” film even though it’s not. It has zero buzz but here we are with me giving it some. So, look for me to be wrong or brilliant here. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the most likely to be among the nominees. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm could surprise here and stands a better chance of say, Da 5 Bloods, because most films are so dark and/or heavy. Personally, I’d love to see Soul earn a nod (it very well may) or even the super fun Palm Springs.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher (Mank)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
My Take: Sorkin is a wonderfully talented man. Chicago 7 is just a poor film. It’s structured badly and it plays like a Lifetime movie with an Oscar-caliber cast. With that said, Sorkin is also celebrated as a writer, and is somewhat inexperienced as a director. That’s why I think Sound of Metal’s Darius Marder or One Night in Miami’s Regina King slides in here. So much has been made about women directors finally being embraced, I’d almost bank on the latter. Don’t count out Florian Zeller for The Father either who could displace Fincher. I’m not sold on Mank being an Oscar favorite.
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
My Take: This is Boseman’s year. It’s bittersweet but so very well deserved. In any other year, Ahmed would run away with this thing. Delroy Lindo of Da 5 Bloods could earn a nod over Yeun but his lack of a SAG nomination makes me think he’ll just miss. If anything Mads Mikkelsen is the best bet for a surprise nod for Another Round. Don’t count out LaKeith Stanfield either to surprise for Judas and the Black Messiah.
BEST ACTRESS
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
My Take: Vanessa Kirby could get the Loren spot for Pieces of a Woman and Zendaya should earn a nod for Malcolm & Marie. As a matter of fact, both of the aforementioned could displace Day and Loren but I’ll stick with these five.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
My Take: Kaluuya is the front runner to win here so the rest may be irrelevant unless the Academy pulls a Tootsie and rewards Boseman for Black Bottom by giving him a win for Da 5. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Nominee-wise, my gut tells me we’re going to get a surprise here with Mark Rylance earning a nod for Chicago 7 over Sacha Baron Cohen. Odom, Jr. is earning a Best Original Song nod, too so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s shut out here in favor of say, Glynn Turman for Black Bottom or the glorious Bill Murray for On the Rocks. Both situations are not likely. My personal hope? Bo Burnham snags a nod for Promising Young Woman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
My Take: Hillbilly Elegy is a manipulative film but features a feisty good Glenn Close. She deserves a nod, and everyone and their mother thinks she’ll get one. I just have a feeling Foster is going to get it. She won a Golden Globe for her performance, and while it normally would mean little, I think at the very least some voters checked out The Mauritanian. Foster hasn’t been nominated in decades and I just don’t get the feeling many people are watching Hillbilly. Seyfried could also be the odd one out for Helena Zengel of News of the World. I’m calling it now, though, Yuh-jung wins the Oscar over Bakalova.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)
My Take: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm could displace News of the World here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
My Take: This category is bonkers. Mank. Da 5 Bloods. Judas and the Black Messiah. Palm Springs. Forty-Year-Old Version. Any of these could earn a nod. I think Soul could be displaced by any of these — most likely Mank. The movie is, afterall, about a screenwriter! Maybe I should rethink my choice — nah. There’s no consequences for being wrong anymore.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
Time
Welcome to Chechnya
Dick Johnson Is Dead
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Another Round
Collective
Two of Us
A Sun
I’m No Longer Here
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Over the Moon
Onward
The Croods: A New Age
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Tenet
Minari
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Emma
News of the World
Mulan
BEST FILM EDITING
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Birds of Prey
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Mank
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Tenet
Minari
Soul
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)
“Rain Song” (Minari)
My Take: Oh please choose “Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga).
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
Tenet
News of the World
The Personal History of David Copperfield
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
BEST SOUND
Sound of Metal
Tenet
Mank
News of the World
Soul
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tenet
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Soul
Mulan
