Look, It’s Another Guy Predicting the Oscars
I’ve been reading a lot of articles lately that essentially question whether the Oscars telecast is dead. The producers are taking heat for cutting some categories from the show (pretty shitty if you ask me) in order for it to flow better, and we all know that the Academy rarely honors popular films so very few people tune in. Last time I checked, The Power of the Dog doesn’t have a toy line.
Are the Oscars dead? No. Irrelevant? Maybe. I don’t think they have the same cache they once did. I don’t think anyone will ever remember that the brutally-vanilla Green Book won Best Picture a few years back. Gosh, I hope not. But, they’re a tradition and should be shown in their entirety. This article isn’t about how to fix the Oscars. It’s who might win at the 94th Annual Academy Awards this Sunday. Every writer posts this, why not another. My best guess is Dog will have its day, but don’t count out Coda. No matter who wins the top prize, look for Dune to take home the most gold guys.
Will Win: Power of the Dog very well might but I’m not picking it. If you asked me a week ago, I would’ve said Dog no question, but after taking home the PGA, I now thing CODA is taking home the top prize. Call me nuts, but I actually think the movie that deserves to win is going to take it this year.
Should Win: CODA is the best here with West Side Story close behind
Dark Horse: I think this is between Power of the Dog and CODA so not horse here in the race.
Will Win: Jane Campion will become the second woman to win in this category for Power of the Dog. Yawn of a movie, but good for her.
Should Win: Steven Spielberg is so good at what he does, we’re totally taking him for granted. His West Side Story is brilliant.
Dark Horse: Sir Kenneth Branagh is way overdue.
Will Win: Last time the race was this close, Olivia Colman beat both Lady Gaga and Glenn Close. Does Colman get a second Oscar for The Lost Daughter over favorite Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye? I’m going to say yes. Why? Because who’s really reading this anyway.
Should Win: Colman gave the best performance of her career.
Dark Horse: Not much of a dark horse, but I’ll go Chastain here or bigger upset Penelope Cruz who would be as big a shock as Carlos Correa signing with the Twins.
Will Win: Will Smith is terrific in King Richard. He’ll win for his body of work as well. It’s just simply his time.
Should Win: Andrew Garfield for tick, tick…Boom! I’ll say it again if Rami Malek can win for Bohemian Rhapsody for mimicking Freddie Mercury’s moves and mouthing his singing, a performance where an actor fully embodies an artist by learning to sing as well deserves it more. Garfield is a revelation just as Taron Egerton was in Rocketman and he wasn’t even nominated.
Dark Horse: Benedict Cumberbatch is the only real threat to Smith, and next to the cinematography and score, is the best thing Power of the Dog has going for it. Sorry not sorry.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will and Should Win: Ariana DeBose is a lock for West Side Story, and deserves it. Her star-making performance stands right next to Rita Moreno.
Dark Horse: Kirsten Dunst has the next best shot for Power of the Dog, but it’s just not going to happen.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will and should win: Troy Kotsur will make history by becoming the first deaf male actor to win an Oscar for his heartbreaking, hilarious, and every-great-adjective performance in CODA.
Dark Horse: Once the favorite, Kodi Smith-McPhee could still upset for The Power of the Dog.
The Rest of the “Will Wins”:
Adapted Screenplay: CODA
Original Screenplay: Belfast
Costume Design: Cruella
Film Editing: Dune
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Production Design: Nightmare Alley
Score: The Power of the Dog
Song: No Time to Die
Visual Effects: Dune
Animated Feature: Encanto (Though I think The Mitchells vs. the Machines may turn it out)
Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
International Film: Drive My Car
Animated Short: Robin Robin
Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball
Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye