Hey, Look It’s Me Doing an Oscar Predictions Piece!
Predicting the Oscar nominations is a bit like predicting the Oscar nominations each year: fun and frustrating. There’s no doubt going to be some surprises that make you smile from ear to ear, and omissions that make you want to throw your laptop acrosss the room. Unlike past years where the latter happens so incredibly often, I think your hardware is relatively safe. Look for very few surethings to miss out. For example, I think The Fabelmans’ Michelle Williams is going to get snubbed in the Best Actress category, but somehow find herself in the more appropriate Best Supporting Actress category, where she probably belongs in anyway. Think: LaKeith Stanfield a few years back, who while lobbied for a Best Actor nod for Judas and the Black Messiah, landed in the supporting category. Similarly, Adam Sandler getting shut out for Hustle in the Best Actor race will make waves but it’s not shocking he’ll be omitted. Don’t get me wrong — he deserves a nod, but he won’t. Tom Cruise failing to make the cut will also especially make headlines, but let’s be honest here — Top Gun: Maverick was one big wonderful popcorn movie. When you saw it did you think it was Oscar worthy? I didn’t. Did it rejuvenate the moviegoing experience? You bet it did. Honor it for that I guess. Overall, look for Everything Everywhere All at Once to dominate.
Anyway, expect surprises like Edward Berger sliding in the Best Director race for All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR landing a Best Picture nod, and Paul Mescal picking up a nomination for Best Actor. And there may be some totally off-the-wall shocks like Keke Palmer for Nope but don’t expect it. Anyway, with that here’s another guy predicting the nominations. Good luck and good night. I’m only doing top categories because I’ll lose you otherwise.
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
RRR
TAR
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Women Talking
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate Slots
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Whale
Look Out For
The Woman King
Best Director
Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans
Daniels — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger — All Quiet on the Western Front
Todd Field — TAR
Alternate Slot
Baz Luhrrman — Elvis
James Cameron — Avatar: The Way of Water
Look Out For
Sarah Polley — Women Talking
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett — TAR
Michelle Yeoh — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Viola Davis — The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler — Till
Ana de Armas — Blonde
Alternate Slot
Michelle Williams — The Fabelmans
Olivia Colman — Empire of Light
Look Out For
Andrea Riseborough — To Leslie
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser — The Whale
Austin Butler — Elvis
Colin Farrell — The Banshees of Inisherin
Bill Nighy — Living
Paul Mescal — Aftersun
Alternate Slot
Tom Cruise — Top Gun: Maverick
Jeremy Pope — The Inspection
Adam Sandler — Hustle
Look Out For
Felix Kammerer — All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon — The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jamie Lee Curtis — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau — The Whale
Michelle Williams — The Fabelmans
Alternate Slot
Dolly De Leon — Triangle of Sadness
Stephanie Hsu — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jessie Buckley — Women Talking
Look Out For
Janelle Monae — Glass Onion
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson — The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano — The Fabelmans
Judd Hirsch — The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne — The Good Nurse
Alternate Slot
Barry Keoghan — The Banshees of Inisherin
Look Out For
Ben Whishaw — Women Talking
Best Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Knives Out: Glass Onion
The Whale
Living
All Quiet on the Western Front
Alternate Slot
She Said
Look Out For
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Original Screenplay
Everything Everywhere All at Once
TAR
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate Slot
Aftersun
Look Out For
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